Hello, everyone.
Last night, on November 15th, former president Donald Trump announced that he was running for president 2024. He continues to assert that he is trying to take back the Oval Office which was “stolen” from him, ignoring mountains of evidence provided over the past two years refuting these claims.
Trump’s announcement is not anywhere near surprising. He stated he would be saying something big several days ago, and nearly everyone expected that this was to be his candidacy speech. It was.
If Trump wins, he will be the second president in history to ever serve two non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland was the first). But, now more than ever, there are doubts that Trump will pull through.
Since he became president in 2016, and even before that, Donald Trump has carefully cultivated his zealous reputation among Republicans. He has stoked their anger, pinned everything wrong on the Democrats, and become immensely popular for it.
Now, though, doubts have been cast on Trump’s power. When NPR performed an interview over the radio last Friday, several former Trump supporters were asked if he should run again. Their answer? No. One argued that the former president’s ego was “too big to handle,” while another said that he was too old and needed to retire. The former interviewee even said that they would rather anyone become president than Trump. It’s become very clear to many, even among his own party, that he has crossed a line of radicalism that was never meant to be crossed. His constant denial of the 2020 elections; his attempted abuse of the electoral process; the incident at Mar-a-Logo, in which Trump removed classified documents from the White House under the guise of “executive privilege;” and his inciting the Jan. 6 attack on the capital have all pushed more moderate Republicans away, dividing the party. Even some of Trump’s biggest donors are beginning to shy away from MAGA - Stephen A. Schwarzman and Kenneth C. Griffin, said they plan to back alternatives to the former president. On the other hand, when several Biden supporters were interviewed in the same NPR broadcast, all of them said that, while Biden was old, they would support him if he ran again. There have also been hints that the incumbent is indeed running again, so Trump and Biden may have a rematch.
And it seems that Trump may not come out on top.
Plus, there’s another top GOP contender, that may turn the tide once and for all against Trump:
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida.
DeSantis is now one of the most popular politicians in the Republican party, and Trump’s most likely challenger for the candidacy. His popularity was only bolstered by his massive win for another term a week ago. In fact, it should be noted that in the NPR interview I discussed above, the GOP member who opposed Trump for his ego said that they would favor DeSantis as president. He’s accumulated a large political following, and even beat many of Trump’s favored candidates for the Floridan governorship.
All in all, here’s my estimate as to how the 2024 elections are going to go down:
Trump and DeSantis will lock horns over the Republican nomination for the presidency. It will be an extremely tight race, that shows the GOP’s deep divide. This divide will only widen when DeSantis will pull off a win, and go on to fact Joe Biden. However, many Republicans would still support Trump, and would be furious with DeSantis for betraying him. They would either refuse to vote entirely, or set up their own political party to get Trump back in office. Their attempts would fail, and would also cripple the Republicans’ voter base. With a diminished number of Republicans voting for DeSantis, Biden will pull off a victory, and serve a second term as president.
Please note that these are only educated guesses, and there’s a very good chance I am incorrect.
For now, though, this is our first look at the 2024 presidential election.
Let the games begin.