Well, the United States midterm elections have come and gone.
The votes have been cast…
The polls closed…
The Great Waiting Game begins.
It’s the day after election day, and already we’ve seen plenty of huge news. First and foremost, the Red Wave is not coming. Republicans had been boasting of a huge win in this election, with both the House and Senate taken by GOP storm. And, they had some valid reasoning: the president’s party almost always suffers in the midterms, and rampant inflation has sent Biden’s popularity plunging. The Republicans had history and the economy on their side.
But still, it didn’t happen.
Why?
This year, fellow substackers and journalists alike proposed that the reason the Republicans met such little success this year lies with the spread of GOP radicalism. Voters are being chased away by Republicans’ adamant opposition to the voting system (despite no evidence of wrongdoing ever being found) with the Big Lie; their anti-abortion stance, which has proven to be extremely unpopular, even in normally Republican states like Michigan; and, above all, the new MAGA candidates. Voters are increasingly concerned about the many Trump-backed candidates, who have overbearing personalities and are often misleading. Take Herschel Walker, the GOP candidate for the Georgia senate seat. He has been flashing a likely fake police badge and has seen two scandals in which the vehemently anti-abortion candidate funded a girlfriend’s abortion. Walker didn’t get an outright win like he expected, and instead another election will be called in December. The results were too close to call in this election, but my own estimate would say that Walker will lose by a narrow margin.
While the Republicans have made some gains, it seems that people are beginning to reject Trump and the new strain of MAGA republicanism.
Here’s a more comprehensive look at some of the biggest developments in the election.
The Good with the Bad
So far, it seems clear that the Republicans are going to take the House of Representatives. It’s not anywhere near the all-encompassing victory they expected, but currently, the New York Times, Reuters, and AP all predict a GOP House.
The senate, despite there being only three uncalled races, is still anyone’s game. Both Democrats and Republicans have 48 seats, and the Democrats have one more projected win - in Arizona. In Nevada, while many votes still must be counted, the Republican candidate has a strong lead over incumbent Cortez Masto. However, many of the uncounted votes are in the big cities, which are Democrat-dominated. If both Arizona and Nevada are won for the Democrats, they will take the senate. If not, (excluding Arizona, as it is nearly assured) we will have to wait until December for Georgia’s “runoff” election.
The Democrats achieved a key win in the state of Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman beat Doug Mastriano in the race to the senate. I called out Mastriano for his anti-semitic comments in an earlier post, so this was a pleasing victory.
The Democrats, while they may be meeting diminished success in the senate, have made great gains in governor campaigns. They’ve lost Texas and are losing Nevada, but have won Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, New York, and Wisconsin. (On an interesting note, Wisconsin also voted for a Republican senator) Plus, in a surprising twist, Democrat Katie Hobbs is leading far-right news anchor Kari Lake by a narrow margin. Since more Democrat votes often come in later in the week - many more of them vote by mail, while Trump urged his voters to vote on the day - this lead will likely expand.
In Florida, Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis has won another term as governor. While this is crushing for Democrats, it was more so towards Donald Trump. DeSantis annihilated Trump’s preferred candidates, and won an easy victory. He is expected to have presidential aims, which may contradict the de facto head of the Republican party, dividing the voters.
Whew! As always, Election Day is about taking the good with the bad. Joe Biden has taken it in stride, celebrating Democrats’ overperformance. “[the voters] sent a clear and unmistakable message that they want to preserve our democracy and protect the right to choose in this country.” He stated on the 9th. He says his decision on whether to run for re-election will be announced next year.
For better or for worse, Election Day is bringing change. What that change will entail will be seen in the coming days and weeks.
- Note: election statistics from the New York Times, Reuters, and AP. Other sources are linked.
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