Hey guys,
I accidentally published a post I had been planning for in a few days time - I will not be taking a break today, for the simple reason that this news is too great to ignore.
Today, August 2nd, US House of Reps. Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan. On the surface, this may seem like an innocent diplomatic meeting - American officials do it all time, like President Biden did in Saudi Arabia. The average president does it hundreds of times. But this time, that story barely scratches the surface. This meeting is the culmination of controversy, conflict, and tension. This meeting is the latest chapter in a decades long saga.
The story we examine today begins before WWII. China had found itself locked in a civil war, between the Chinese Nationalists - the leaders of China, who often seemed out of touch with the country and were not very popular - and the Communists, led by Mao Zedong and quite popular with the common people. Skip past the horrors of WWII - which would be long and traumatizing to describe - and the war continues. Finally, in 1949, the Communists prevail, despite foreign aid being given to their opposition. The Nationalists’ leader, Chiang Kai-shek, led the remains of his army to the island of Taiwan. There, they created the Republic of China, better known as Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Communists created the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Naturally, the PRC did not acknowledge Taiwan’s right of sovereignty, and to this day claim the island as their own. So… who owns the island? This is an extremely controversial subject, and it depends on who you ask. The majority of the world does not believe Taiwan is a country, largely due to mainland Chinese efforts. Not even the US recognizes them, though many have expressed that viewpoint.
Hence, where we are today: the US House Speaker, third in line for the presidency, visiting what may be the most controversial country on earth. China is absolutely furious at this, saying that the action “seriously undermines” US-China relations.
Now, there is reason to Nancy Pelosi’s decision. China has become increasingly aggressive towards Taiwan; the maritime border between the two countries is patrolled by the Chinese air force, and Reuters stated that:
Joint air and sea drills near Taiwan starting on Tuesday night and test launches of conventional missiles in the sea east of Taiwan…
Military testing and training exercises will also commence on all other sides of Taiwan. This reminds me of how another current war started… is it any surprise that Taiwan is scared for its life?
So, the million dollar question: did Pelosi make the right choice? It certainly has already accomplished one of its primary objectives (I surmise): it has brought attention to the plight of Taiwan. Media coverage is a powerful tool, as we see how extensive news focus on the Ukraine War united people across the world against Russia. Now that same media power will cast an eye on Taiwan’s struggles for sovereignty. And, of course, Taiwan is positively ecstatic; they even lit up their tallest building with messages like “Welcome to Taiwan,” and “Taiwan ❤️ USA.” And yet, there is backlash to the decision; many newspaper articles are slashing the choice; the New York Times has published opinion articles calling the visit “reckless.” There’s merit to that: right now, tensions between the US and China are at an absolute height, due to China’s support of Russia, and China’s crimes against the Uyghurs have been labeled as “genocide” by many. Pelosi’s decision will only increase the tension, with China already spitting fire.
What do you think?
By Nancy Pelosi traveling to Taiwan, sends a message and unites the people of Taiwan. That the USA does recognize Taiwan as a country and acknowledges their sovereignty. No matter what the situation, there will always be unrest between China, Taiwan and USA.
Great post Reed! A complex geopolitical situation with no easy answers. A weakness, I think, of Friedman's opinion piece is it paints the situation as too simplistic.